Zhongyuan Securities·2025-05-17 00:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the Market" for the basic chemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index fell by 3.61% in April 2025, ranking 20th among 30 major industries, with a year-on-year decline of 0.37% [5][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on potassium fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industries, which are expected to see price recovery due to tightening supply and strong demand [5][8]. Market Review - In April 2025, 12 out of 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector saw price increases, with daily chemical products, inorganic salts, and fluorine chemicals leading the gains at 8.56%, 4.37%, and 3.46% respectively [12]. - The overall performance of the basic chemical sector was characterized by a significant price drop in chemical products, influenced by falling international oil prices [5][8]. Industry and Company News - The report highlights that the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 78.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4% [16]. - The report notes that the potassium fertilizer sector is characterized by strong resource attributes and a concentrated supply structure, which is expected to drive price recovery [5][8]. Product Price Tracking - In April 2025, the prices of chemical raw materials and products saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with significant impacts from the drop in oil prices [20][21]. - The report tracks the price movements of various chemical products, indicating a general downward trend due to external market pressures [5][8]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for May 2025 suggests continued focus on potassium fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industries, which are expected to benefit from tightening supply and robust demand [5][8].