煤炭周报：港口库存下降叠加旺季备煤需求开启，煤价有望触底反弹-20250517

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that port inventories are decreasing, and the demand for coal in preparation for the summer peak is beginning, suggesting that coal prices may be poised for a rebound [6][7]. - The supply side remains strong while demand is weakening, leading to continued downward pressure on coking coal prices in the short term [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable high dividend values in the coal sector amidst increasing international uncertainties and weak demand [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a decline in port inventories and the onset of peak coal demand, which may support coal prices [6]. - It discusses the impact of tariff conflicts on electricity demand and the seasonal decline in coal consumption, leading to a decrease in coal prices [6]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the supply of coking coal remains ample, while demand from steel production is stabilizing at high levels, contributing to a bearish market sentiment [8][9]. - It provides data on coal prices, noting that the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal was 618 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [7]. Company Performance - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 RMB in 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. - It highlights the performance of various coal companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Dayou Energy and Anyuan Coal [11][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with stable performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow growth like Jinkong Coal [2][10].