战略数据研究：专题报告：市场情绪温度如何刻画

Group 1: Market Sentiment Analysis - Market sentiment is closely related to the profit effect, and tracking sentiment trends can help adjust positions to capture elasticity and avoid drawdowns[2] - A market sentiment index is constructed using various indicators to quantitatively characterize market sentiment and develop preliminary timing strategies[2] Group 2: Quantitative Characterization of Market Sentiment - Trading activity is measured by transaction volume or value, with increased activity indicating a positive sentiment towards profit potential[6] - The proportion of stocks hitting the daily limit and those breaking the 20-day moving average are used to assess individual stock profit effects and overall sentiment[6] - The financing balance ratio reflects risk appetite, with a high ratio indicating a higher market risk preference; historically, a financing balance above the MA120 often signals market overheating[6] Group 3: Sentiment Index and Its Application - The sentiment index, which ranges from 0 to 100, reached a high of 83.19 on September 30, 2024, indicating extreme market sentiment[7] - The sentiment index generally moves in tandem with the overall market, but divergences can occur during periods of strong consensus among funds[8] - When the sentiment index exceeds 60 and the financing balance ratio is below MA120, it suggests a continuation of the upward trend, recommending high-elasticity assets[9] Group 4: Current Market Sentiment - As of May 15, 2025, the sentiment index is at 48.93, indicating a moderate level of sentiment, with a recommendation for balanced asset allocation[10] - Over 70% of stocks have broken the 20-day moving average, while trading volume and turnover rates are above the 70th percentile of the past three years[10]