红利风格投资价值跟踪（2025W20）：中证红利成交较4月缩量，本周ETF净流出28.24亿元

Macro Perspective - Recent US Treasury yields are influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 36.8% probability of a cut in July 2025[3] - Domestic M2 growth in April 2025 was 8.0%, up from 7.0% in the previous month, while the M1-M2 differential decreased to -6.5% from -5.4%[10] Valuation Metrics - The absolute PETTM for the CSI Dividend Index is at the 99.60th percentile over the past three years, indicating a high valuation level[17] - The relative PETTM is at the 77.30th percentile, suggesting a decrease from the previous month's 88.38th percentile[21] Price and Volume Analysis - 64.68% of the CSI Dividend Index component stocks are above the six-month moving average, an increase from 52.14% a month ago, indicating improved price momentum[23] - The absolute trading volume is at the 57.41st percentile over the past three years, down from 72.90% a month ago, suggesting reduced trading activity[30] Fund Flows - The CSI Dividend ETF experienced a net outflow of 28.24 billion yuan this week, with a total net outflow of 53.09 billion yuan over the past month[36] - The exposure of equity mutual funds to dividend strategies has decreased from 0.45 in Q4 2024 to 0.37 in Q1 2025, indicating a reduction in allocation to dividend stocks[36] Summary Insights - The macro model suggests that the dividend style may underperform compared to growth style in the near future due to high valuation levels and reduced trading volume[44] - Long-term outlook remains positive for growth style as liquidity conditions improve with potential monetary and fiscal policy measures[44]