机构行为观察周报：债市换手率上行，非银机构杠杆率下行-20250517

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the calculation results of spot bond trading data, the duration center of all bond - type funds decreased by 0.03 years week - on - week to 3.08 years [5]. - Based on the measurement model, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased and the divergence decreased. The median 5DMA of all medium - and long - term pure bond funds reached 2.66 years, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 years, at the 96% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.50, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03, at the 66% quantile in the past three years [5]. - The median duration of short - term pure bond funds decreased and the divergence decreased. The median 5DMA of all short - term bond funds reached 0.93 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 years, at the 92.7% quantile in the past three years, and the 5DMA of duration divergence was 0.47, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01, at the 66.7% quantile [5]. - Most bond turnover rates increased this week, while the turnover rates of some long - term credit bonds decreased. As of May 16, 2025, the 10DMA of the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate increased by 3.22 pcts week - on - week to 13.52%, at the 86.6% quantile in the past three years, while the 10DMA of the turnover rate of medium - term notes over 10 years decreased by 0.01 pcts week - on - week to 0.37%, at the 16.4% quantile [5]. - The inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week to 107.0%. The insurance company leverage ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 125.3%, the bank leverage ratio increased by 0.39 percentage points to 102.6%, the securities company leverage ratio decreased by 28.31 percentage points to 204.2%, and the broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 111.9% [5]. - The total market wealth management outstanding scale increased by 265.511 billion yuan week - on - week last week, in line with the seasonal level, and the net - breaking rate decreased slightly. The net - breaking rate of the total market wealth management unit net value was 1.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 pcts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This week, the duration center of medium - and long - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased, and the divergence decreased - The duration center of all bond funds decreased by 0.03 years week - on - week to 3.08 years [5][10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the duration center of all medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose to the 95.7% quantile in the past three years, and the duration center of all short - term pure bond funds decreased to the 92.7% quantile in the past three years [12]. - The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased, and the divergence decreased [5][14]. - The median duration of medium - and long - term credit - type pure bond funds increased, and the divergence decreased [5][16]. - The median duration of short - term interest - rate pure bond funds decreased, and the divergence increased [5][18]. - The median duration of short - term credit - type pure bond funds decreased, and the divergence decreased [5][18]. 3.2 This week, most bond turnover rates increased, while the turnover rates of some long - term credit bonds decreased - As of May 16, 2025, the 10DMA of the turnover rates of various bonds with different maturities are presented in detail, such as the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate 10DMA was 13.52%, and the 10 - year - plus medium - term note turnover rate 10DMA was 0.37% [22]. - The quantiles of the turnover rates of various bonds in the past three years are also provided, for example, the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate was at the 86.6% quantile, and the 10 - year - plus medium - term note turnover rate was at the 16.4% quantile [22]. - The week - on - week changes in the 10DMA of the turnover rates of various bonds are given, like the 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond turnover rate 10DMA increased by 3.22 pcts week - on - week, and the 10 - year - plus medium - term note turnover rate 10DMA decreased by 0.01 pcts week - on - week [25]. - The 10DMA of the turnover rates of local government bonds in various provinces and cities as of May 16, 2025, their quantiles in the past three years, and the valuation spreads of 7 - 10 - year and 20 - 30 - year local bonds are listed. Shandong, Jiangsu, and Gansu had relatively high local bond turnover rates, with 7 - 10 - year (inclusive) valuation spreads reaching 15.49 bps, 14.42 bps, and 12.47 bps respectively [27]. 3.3 This week, except for the increase in the bank leverage ratio, the leverage ratios of other non - bank institutions decreased - The inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week to 107.0% [5][37]. - The insurance company leverage ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 125.3% [5][32]. - The bank leverage ratio increased by 0.39 percentage points to 102.6% [5][33]. - The securities company leverage ratio decreased by 28.31 percentage points to 204.2% [5][36]. - The broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 111.9% [5][36]. 3.4 Last week, the wealth management scale increased, and the net - breaking rate decreased - The total market wealth management outstanding scale increased by 265.511 billion yuan week - on - week last week, in line with the seasonal level [5][38]. - In terms of different terms, the scale of daily - open wealth management increased significantly last week, the scale of 1 - 3 - year (inclusive) wealth management decreased slightly, and the scales of other - term wealth management increased slightly [5]. - In terms of different investment natures, the scales of fixed - income and cash - management wealth management increased significantly, and the scales of other investment types increased slightly [5]. - The net - breaking rate of the total market wealth management unit net value was 1.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 pcts [5]. - In terms of different terms, the performance comparison benchmarks of daily - open and 1 - 3 - month (inclusive) newly - issued wealth management products increased, while those of other - term varieties decreased [5].