每周高频跟踪：宏观预期提振，中游价格先行回暖-20250517

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of May, the substantial progress in China-US economic and trade negotiations significantly boosted macro confidence. Under the positive influence, the container shipping prices on North American routes soared, and the speculative trading volume of domestic industrial products increased, driving price recovery. Attention should be paid to the implementation and effects of domestic policies [3][36]. - In terms of inflation, the decline in food prices continued to narrow. In terms of exports, the easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations was beneficial, the transportation demand on North American routes recovered significantly, and the freight rates of most routes increased, driving the SCFI index higher. In the industrial sector, the growth rates of the operating rates of asphalt and tires expanded this week, while the operating rates of upstream chemical products continued to decline. The easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations boosted macro confidence, driving the prices of most mid - stream investment products to strengthen, and the CRB spot index stopped falling and rebounded [3][36]. - In terms of investment, continuous precipitation in the South affected the release of infrastructure demand, and the price of cement continued to fall. The trading volume of rebar increased, but part of it was due to the speculative demand brought about by the improvement of macro confidence. The improvement of terminal demand was still limited, and the sustainability of the increase in steel prices needed to be observed. In the real estate sector, after the holiday, the housing purchase demand was relatively released, and the transactions of new and second - hand houses increased seasonally month - on - month. New houses were still weaker than the same period; the transaction volume of second - hand houses returned to slightly lower than the level of the same period in 2024, and the month - on - month rebound slope was higher than the seasonal level, indicating that the trading volume remained resilient [3][36]. - For the bond market, under the easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations, it may promote the resurgence of short - term "rush to export" and the improvement of macro readings from May to June. However, from the high - frequency data, the progress of the restoration of the endogenous driving force of the domestic economy still needs to be verified, and the short - term fundamentals are still in the policy observation period [3][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - related - The decline in food prices continued to narrow. The average wholesale price of pork in the country remained flat week - on - week. The prices of vegetables decreased by 2.0% week - on - week, with the decline narrowing. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively week - on - week, with the decline continuing to narrow compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Import and Export - related - Affected by the easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations, the transportation demand on North American routes recovered significantly, and the freight rates of most routes increased, driving the SCFI higher. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the SCFI increased by about 10% week - on - week. The BDI continued to decline, with the BDI index decreasing by 3.0% week - on - week on average, and the CDFI index decreasing by 2.2% week - on - week [11]. 3.3 Industry - related - The decline in the price of thermal coal widened. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.1% week - on - week [17]. - The price of rebar increased. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.4% week - on - week. The improvement of the steel market fundamentals supported the rebound of steel prices, but the driving force for the steel price to continue to rise was limited [17]. - The increase in copper prices narrowed, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 1.2% respectively week - on - week, with the increase narrowing compared with the previous week [21]. - The procurement demand for glass weakened, and the spot price decreased. There was still room for the short - term spot price of glass to decline [21]. 3.4 Investment - related - The price of cement continued to fall. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.5% week - on - week, falling for six consecutive weeks [23]. - After the holiday, the transaction volume of new houses in 30 cities increased month - on - month but was still weaker year - on - year. From May 9th to May 15th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.909 million square meters, an increase of 69% month - on - month and a decrease of 10% year - on - year [24]. - The transaction volume of second - hand houses rebounded seasonally, and the slope was higher than that of the same period from 2023 to 2024. From May 9th to May 15th, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 17 cities was 2.138 million square meters, an increase of 78% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.5% year - on - year, about 10% higher than the same period in 2023 [26]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From May 1st to 11th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 12% year - on - year. The growth rate in the early part of May was lower than that of the whole month of April, and the growth was due to the boost of the May Day holiday [32]. - The price of crude oil continued to rise. By Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil both increased by about 2.4% compared with last Friday, supported by factors such as the progress of China-US tariff negotiations, US sanctions on Iran, and the lower - than - expected production increase of OPEC+ in April [32].