海外策略周报：美股估值回到偏高位，港股短期将进一步分化

Market Overview - The US stock market has rebounded significantly, leading to a notable increase in valuations, with the TAMAMA Technology Index P/E ratio rising to 32, above the high range of 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index P/E ratio has surged to 46, exceeding the high range of 45[1] - The Nasdaq Index, heavily weighted by technology stocks, has a P/E ratio of 39.8, nearing the high range of 40[1] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 36.6, significantly above the historical average of 17.24 and median of 16.04[1] - Due to economic policy uncertainties, high valuations, and rapid increases, the US stock market may face further downward pressure in the medium term[1] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's Information Technology sector saw the largest increase, with a weekly gain of 8.14%, while the Healthcare sector had the smallest increase at 0.26%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.09%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index increasing by 1.92% and 1.37%, respectively[21] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to experience volatility, with indices such as the Istanbul ISE100 and India SENSEX30 likely to face challenges due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties[1] - The Nikkei 225 index's rebound has slowed, with a weekly increase of only 0.67%, indicating potential for a correction[1] Investment Strategy - In the Hong Kong market, after a period of rebound, there is a likelihood of differentiation among assets, with some experiencing corrections[32] - Investors are advised to avoid indiscriminate buying and focus on sectors like Information Technology, Healthcare, and Financials, where structural opportunities may arise from low valuations and strong fundamentals[32]