纸浆周报：延续低位反弹，关注需求恢复情况-20250518

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Continued Low-level Rebound, Focus on Demand Recovery - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated May 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, continued to rebound with a slight decline [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - As of May 15, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 6,028 yuan/ton, up 1.14% from last week; imported hardwood pulp was 4,213 yuan/ton, up 0.91%; imported natural pulp was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 0.61%; imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,842 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [12] - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively [15] - The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, etc. was 2.1948 million tons, up 11.24% from last week [18] - In April 2025, the inventory of European chemical pulp was 695,800 tons, up 3.62% year-on-year, and the inventory days were 26 days, up 1 day from the same period last year. Most European countries' port inventories increased month-on-month, driving the total European port inventory to increase in April [21] Group 4: Outlook - The latest round of quotations from international pulp mills has lowered the price of imported hardwood pulp, and the inventory accumulation in European ports is a short-term negative for the market. Domestically, the price of base paper is weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Pay attention to the progress of demand recovery. If the downstream operating load rate rebounds month-on-month, it may boost industry expectations. If the Sino-US tariffs are unexpectedly reduced, there is a willingness to push up prices in the market due to the inverted shipping price. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long at low prices [31]