国信期货甲醇周报：供应预期增加，甲醇震荡回调-20250518

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol supply remains high as some previously overhauled methanol plants resumed stable operation in May. Although the short - term available supply in coastal areas is scarce, the significant increase in imported cargoes at coastal public terminals is expected, with an estimated arrival volume of 930,000 tons in mid - to - late May, leading to limited upward potential in prices [44]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of the methanol main contract MA2509 was 2,284 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.42%. It shed 50,000 lots, and the open interest was 710,000 lots. The port basis continued to weaken [6]. - Inland methanol prices first declined and then rose. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,116 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from last week. Some olefin enterprises continued to make external purchases, and the overall transaction center moved upward. The coastal methanol market rebounded from the low level. The weekly average price in Taicang was 2,429 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from last week. With the improvement of macro - sentiment and the restart expectation of coastal downstream, the negotiation and transaction center of coastal methanol moved slightly upward [9]. - In the overseas market, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month was 265 - 268 US dollars/ton, and that of Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month was +0.7 - 1.5%. A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia was under maintenance. As of now, two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 3.45 million tons were shut down, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 335 - 340 US dollars/ton [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Methanol Operating Rate: As of May 15, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 75.50%, down 0.15 percentage points from last week but up 10.36 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 82.42%, down 1.15 percentage points from last week but up 13.11 percentage points from the same period last year [16]. - Methanol Imports and Exports: The import arbitrage window was open, and the re - export profit remained relatively high [18]. - Methanol Port Inventory: The coastal methanol inventory this week was 629,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The overall coastal inventory increased steadily, and the raw material inventory of downstream factories also rose. The estimated tradable methanol supply in the coastal area was 254,000 tons, and the short - term available supply was scarce. It is expected that the volume of imported methanol vessels arriving in China in mid - to - late May will be 930,000 tons [22]. - Crude Oil and Natural Gas: The international natural gas price slightly declined to around 3.7 US dollars/MMBtu, and the import cost of natural - gas - based methanol increased to around 1,780 yuan/ton [25]. - Methanol Upstream - Coal: The domestic thermal coal market remained weak this week, with coal prices continuing to decline. The theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly [28]. - Methanol Downstream Price and Operating Rate: The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was about 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was about 58.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [30]. - Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream: Not elaborated in detail in the text. - Methanol Downstream - MTO: The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 77.52%, up 1.53 percentage points from last week. The average load of externally - purchased MTO plants was 75.68%, up 8.51 percentage points from last week. Inner Mongolia Baofeng (Phase I) resumed production, Zhongmei Yulin entered maintenance on May 10, Ningxia Baofeng (Phase II) shut down this week for a planned one - month maintenance. Zhongmei Mengda has a maintenance plan in late June, and Sierbang plans to restart in late May [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The domestic methanol supply remains high. Although the short - term available supply in coastal areas is scarce, the expected increase in imported cargoes will limit the upward potential of prices [44].