Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-18 03:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, indicating that leading companies in the sector have mid-term allocation value, with consumer staples showing stronger defensive characteristics and liquor exhibiting greater cyclical elasticity [5][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new products and channel changes within the food and beverage industry, as overall demand remains subdued. It highlights the potential for recovery in the liquor sector if economic conditions improve in the second half of 2025, alongside necessary industry adjustments [5][9]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as consumer staples like Yili and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and new retail trends [5][9][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The food and beverage sector underperformed the Shenwan A index by 0.16 percentage points during the period from May 12 to May 16, 2025. Sub-sectors such as food processing and beverage dairy outperformed the index, while liquor and other categories lagged behind [33]. 2. Liquor Sector Insights - The report notes that Kweichow Moutai's bottle price remains stable at 2080 RMB, with Wuliangye around 920-930 RMB. Despite a slight recovery in demand during the May holiday, overall consumption in the liquor sector is expected to remain flat, with pressures anticipated in the second quarter [10][11]. - Liquor companies reported positive revenue growth in Q1 2025, but the growth rate has slowed significantly compared to previous years, indicating a trend of increasing differentiation among brands [10]. 3. Consumer Staples Sector Insights - The report forecasts a flat demand outlook for consumer staples in the second quarter and second half of 2025, with a continued cost advantage expected to support profitability. The dairy sector is highlighted for its potential revenue and profit improvement due to supply-demand rebalancing and supportive policies [11]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Qingdao Beer are recommended for their strong performance and growth potential in the context of new product launches and channel innovations [11]. 4. Key Company Updates - Companies like Zhou Hei Ya are focusing on enhancing store quality and expanding distribution channels, while Huazhi Wine is targeting mid-to-high-end consumers through its retail strategies [14][15]. - Gu Yue Long Shan is concentrating on high-end and youthful product lines, with a focus on maintaining price stability and enhancing brand appeal [15].