日耗拐点将至，煤价或企稳回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term balance in supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rise, with historical patterns suggesting a potential turning point in consumption by late May as the summer electricity demand season approaches [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 16, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 618 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.3 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1350 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 1.20 million tons/day (-0.39%), while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7.10 million tons/day (+4.09%) [3][48] - The chemical industry’s coal consumption decreased by 22.31 thousand tons/day (-3.11%) [11] Inventory Situation - As of May 15, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 337 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 26 thousand tons [48] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 0.20 days, while it decreased by 0.80 days in coastal provinces [48] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.65% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [14] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others with stable operations and strong performance [12][13]