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中美关税缓和,制造业需求维持韧性
Minsheng Securities·2025-05-18 05:32

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariffs between China and the US has improved external demand expectations, providing short-term support for steel demand [5][6]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in steel production control due to uncertainties in external demand and a recovering domestic demand [5][6]. - The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover as raw material supply conditions become more favorable [5][6]. Price Summary - As of May 16, steel prices have increased, with rebar (20mm HRB400) priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][12]. - Hot-rolled steel (3.0mm) is priced at 3310 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 80 CNY/ton [3][12]. - Cold-rolled steel (1.0mm) is priced at 3670 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton [3][12]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week ending May 16 was 8.68 million tons, a decrease of 58,200 tons from the previous week [4]. - Social inventory of major steel products decreased by 392,900 tons to 9.93 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.60 million tons, an increase of 463,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector [5]. - Suggested attention to high-temperature alloy stocks such as Fushun Special Steel [5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.34 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20 [5]. - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) has an EPS forecast of 0.29 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [5]. - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.37 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 12 [5].