行业投资策略：高耗能行业绿电消纳要求有望提振绿电环境价值

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power industry, emphasizing the shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand balance and the importance of stable profitability in the sector [1][7]. Supply - The supply shock caused by the issuance of green certificates (绿证) is expected to end by the end of 2025, as the market has achieved full coverage of green certificate issuance across various renewable energy sources [12][13]. - In 2024, a total of 4.734 billion green certificates were issued, with 3.158 billion being tradable, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [4][16]. - The green certificate market is anticipated to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics as the backlog of issued certificates begins to expire starting in 2026 [4][6]. Demand - The introduction of mandatory green electricity consumption requirements for high-energy-consuming industries is expected to drive growth in green certificate consumption [5][22]. - In 2024, the trading volume of green certificates was only 14.12% of the issued amount, indicating a lack of consumption momentum, but recent policies are expected to enhance this [5][24]. - High-energy industries accounted for 39.73% of total electricity consumption in 2024, with significant potential for increased green certificate demand as consumption requirements are enforced [27][28]. Outlook - The green certificate market is projected to experience a "pain period" in 2025, but with the easing of supply pressures and the implementation of mandatory consumption policies, prices are expected to stabilize [6][32]. - By 2030, the issuance of green certificates is expected to reach approximately 4 billion, driven by stable growth in renewable energy generation and increasing coverage rates [21][20]. Beneficiary Stocks - The report suggests selecting high-quality, low-valuation renewable energy operators as beneficiaries, including companies like 大唐新能源 (Datang Renewable), 龙源电力 (Longyuan Power), and 中国电力 (China Power) [36][37].