Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-18 07:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an increase in industry focus [5][29]. Core Insights - Recent uncertainties in orders and the easing of tensions between India and Pakistan have led to a pullback in military stocks. However, the report anticipates that as orders stabilize and military trade continues to materialize, the military market will gradually stabilize and trend upward [5]. - China's military trade is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with increased international recognition of Chinese military products during the India-Pakistan conflict, thereby expanding the market space and valuation for the entire industry [5]. - The fundamental changes in the military sector are solidifying the basis for industry growth, with the military construction entering a critical phase as the centenary of the army approaches, focusing on quality and quantity improvements [5]. - The report highlights the simultaneous development of multiple satellite constellations in communication, remote sensing, and computing, indicating an acceleration in domestic commercial aerospace development [5]. - The report recommends increasing attention to the military sector, particularly on elastic/theme varieties, with specific focus on precision-guided weapons, underwater capabilities, AI/robotics, and traditional aircraft supply chains [5]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 5.71%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.05%, and the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 0.04% [6][11]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's 5.71% decline ranked last among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [6]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were Chengfei Integration (46.43%), Lijun Shares (44.15%), Tongda Shares (19.92%), Chunxing Precision (11.23%), and ST Ruike (8.72%) [12]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were Aerospace Changfeng (-14.76%), Hongyuan Electronics (-13.82%), Sichuan Electronics (-12.92%), Huawu Shares (-12.82%), and Optoelectronics Shares (-12.71%) [13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 74.13, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 64.19% since January 2014 and 89.96% since January 2019 [12]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment PE valuations at relatively high levels since 2020 [12]. Key Valuation Targets - The report lists key valuation targets in the military sector, including companies like Feilihua, Tianqin Equipment, and Chengdu Huami, with projected earnings and PE ratios for the coming years [21][24].