中美关税进展积极，股指走势分化

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "oscillation" [1] Core View of the Report - The global stock market rose this week, especially the US stocks driving the significant recovery of developed markets. The Sino-US Geneva talks achieved better-than-expected progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs, and 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days. This will lead to trade restoration between the two countries in the next 90 days, and the external cycle will support the domestic economy. However, policy efforts may remain conservative, and the inflation situation is hard to strengthen. Given the current high valuation of the stock market, the potential return on investment is restricted. The short - term market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [2][9] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview - Next Week's View: The market is expected to wait for the return of liquidity. The short - term market will maintain an oscillatory trend due to Sino - US trade restoration, conservative policy efforts, and high stock market valuations [2][9] - This Week's Key Event Concerns: - On May 12th, Sino - US Geneva economic and trade negotiations made positive progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs. The US and China will adjust relevant tariff policies, and China will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff countermeasures against the US. Also, 34 cities will be selected for the third batch of enterprise digital transformation pilot projects. Japan's Prime Minister demanded the US to cancel all additional tariffs [10][11][12] - On May 13th, China's leader proposed to start five major projects with Latin American countries. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of work - relief. The central bank's deputy governor summarized four changes in the central bank's policy framework. India plans to impose tariffs on some US products. China's central bank and Brazil's central bank signed relevant agreements [14][15][16][17][18] - On May 14th, China's leader met with leaders of Colombia and Chile, promoting bilateral cooperation. Seven departments issued policies to build a science - technology finance system. Tax data showed that the national enterprise sales revenue increased by 4.3% year - on - year in April. China's M2 growth rate was 8% and M1 was 1.5% in April [19][20][21][22] - On May 15th, China will implement a visa - free policy for five South American countries. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a document to combat illegal activities in the capital market. The agricultural machinery market index in April showed a weak peak season [23][24][25] - On May 16th, the average annual salary of urban non - private employees in 2024 was 124,110 yuan, with a 2.6% increase, and that of private employees was 69,476 yuan, with a 4% increase. Public fund professionals refuted the view of market repositioning due to public fund assessment benchmarks. The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of duty - free shopping for consumption [26][27][28] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: From May 12th to May 16th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars generally rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 3.97%, with developed markets (+4.08%) > emerging markets (+2.98%) > frontier markets (+1.72%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 5.37%, leading the world, while the Japanese stock market fell 0.48%, performing the worst globally [29] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: Chinese equity assets were divided into markets, with Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1266.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 87.2 billion yuan from last week. A - share indexes were differentiated, with blue - chip indexes such as the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rising more than 1%, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 indexes fell [32] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+7.39%), and the healthcare industry performing poorly (-0.02%). In the Chinese market, the financial industry led the rise (+1.91%), and the information technology industry led the decline (-0.84%) [35] - Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share CITIC Primary Industries: Among Chinese A - share CITIC primary industries, 21 rose (30 last week) and 9 fell (0 last week). The leading industry was the automobile industry (+2.71%), and the industry with the largest decline was the national defense and military industry (-1.61%) [36] - Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share Styles: The large - cap growth style was dominant [41] - Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis: No specific data was summarized in the text [44] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad - Based Index Valuation: The text provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indexes this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [53] - Primary Industry Valuation: The text provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [54] - Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [55][60] - Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.38% and up to 8.09% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was adjusted down to 37.38% and down to 16.00% in 2026; that of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was adjusted up to 1.55% and down to 18.76% in 2026 [61] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond and the 1 - year Treasury bond rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.20 [68] - Trading - Type Capital Tracking: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 13.3 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 4.3 billion yuan [71] - Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs: There were 28 on - site ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.6 billion shares, that of the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, that of the CSI 1000 decreased by 700 million shares, and that of the CSI A500 decreased by 4.3 billion shares [73][74][78] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data - Supply Side: The tire operating rate rebounded rapidly [80] - Consumption Side: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [90] - Inflation Observation: Agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [101]