Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-18 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery, with new home sales in 34 key cities increasing by 30% week-on-week, while second-hand home sales also showed a positive trend with a 32% increase [4][5]. - The report highlights significant policy support for urban renewal and housing quality improvement, including the implementation of current housing sales for newly released land in Xinyang and the introduction of standards for quality housing in Shandong [4][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product strength in real estate companies, recommending firms with strong product offerings and a focus on first and second-tier cities [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 238 million square meters last week, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the previous week [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in May showed a decline of 7%, with first and second-tier cities also experiencing a 7% drop [7][8]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 126 million square meters last week, marking a 32% increase week-on-week [4][13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales in May increased by 1% year-on-year [13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 106 million square meters of new homes launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.99, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [4][22]. - The average months of inventory for new homes in these cities is 19.7 months, which has decreased by 0.6 months [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report outlines key policy developments, including the central government's push for urban renewal and the resolution of historical real estate registration issues, benefiting over 50 million people [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing various measures to enhance housing quality and accessibility, such as optimizing housing loan conditions for young people in Wuhan and expanding housing fund coverage for flexible employment workers in Shenyang [32][33]. Company Dynamics Performance Highlights - Beike reported a net income of 23.33 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with a net profit of 860 million yuan, up 98.2% [41][42]. - New City Holdings and China Resources Land reported significant declines in sales, with New City Holdings down 56% and China Resources Land down 5% year-on-year [38][40]. Management Changes - Recent leadership changes include Xu Xiaoxi resigning as chairman of Xiamen International Trade Group to take over as chairman of Jianfa Group, and Zheng Yongda stepping down from Jianfa Group to lead Xiamen International Trade [38][40].