贵金属双周报：区域局势缓和短期压制金价，不改长期看多逻辑-20250518

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold price has experienced fluctuations recently, with London spot gold decreasing by 2.05% to $3182.95 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold down by 3.65% to ¥751.80 per gram. Meanwhile, the holding volume of Shanghai gold increased by 5.68% to 437,100 lots [6][11] - The recent price movements are attributed to the easing of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have led to a temporary pullback in gold prices. Key factors include the US-China joint statement on tariff adjustments and ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7] - The Federal Reserve may reshape its monetary policy framework, with Chairman Powell indicating potential challenges for the US economy and the Fed. The expectation of interest rate cuts and the continuation of tax reduction policies are anticipated to provide strong momentum for gold prices [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Recent price changes include a 2.05% drop in London spot gold to $3182.95 per ounce and a 3.65% decrease in Shanghai gold to ¥751.80 per gram. Silver and platinum also saw slight declines, while palladium increased by 1.05% to $964 per ounce [11][12] 2. US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US economic data, including the May PMI and core PCE price index, which will be crucial for assessing the economic landscape and potential impacts on gold prices [6][7] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The holding volume for Shanghai gold rose by 5.68% to 437,100 lots, indicating increased market activity despite the price declines [11] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The domestic gold price difference from international prices decreased, with the gold price gap at ¥10.46 per gram, down by ¥17.97 from two weeks prior [60] 5. Futures Basis Situation - The international gold basis (spot-futures) is reported at -$22.35 per ounce, a decrease of $24.65 from two weeks ago, indicating a shift in market dynamics [69]