ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-05-18 07:50Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see improvements in both volume and pricing, with optimistic expectations continuing to develop. High passenger load factors are anticipated to drive ticket prices upward, supported by regulatory measures from the Civil Aviation Administration [4][5]. - The shipping industry is poised for a dual increase in volume and pricing due to multiple catalysts, including replenishment demand and seasonal peaks. The report highlights the potential for significant price increases in the shipping sector [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key companies recommended for investment include Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which are expected to show strong performance due to their operational resilience and market positioning [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure improvements and policy changes that could benefit the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [4][5]. Operational Tracking - Data from major airlines shows a positive trend in passenger traffic and load factors, with Southern Airlines reporting a 4.91% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [14]. - The report tracks significant increases in cargo volumes across various transportation modes, indicating a robust recovery in logistics and freight services [5][6]. Aviation Data Tracking - The report provides detailed metrics on airline performance, including ASK and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), showing growth across major carriers. For instance, China Eastern Airlines reported a 10.89% increase in RPK in Q1 2025 [14]. - The average ticket price for economy class during the Dragon Boat Festival is projected to rise, reflecting a strong demand environment [4]. Shipping Data Tracking - The report notes a 9.98% week-on-week increase in the SCFI index, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates, despite a year-on-year decline of 41.31% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff changes on shipping demand, particularly in the US-China trade context, which is expected to stimulate replenishment and seasonal demand [5]. Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks significant growth in express delivery volumes, with a 15.83% year-on-year increase in the number of packages collected during early May 2025 [5]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from improved cross-border trade conditions, which are expected to enhance the performance of logistics companies [5].