20250516房地产行业周报：中央发文推进城市更新，不同能级城市销售分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The central government has issued policies to promote urban renewal, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and foster healthy development. There is a noticeable sales differentiation among cities of varying tiers, with first-tier cities performing significantly better than second and third-tier cities [8][14] - The report highlights that while overall sales of new and second-hand homes have declined, the inventory cycle in key cities continues to decrease, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 0.31%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.12%, resulting in a relative return of -1.43%, indicating weaker performance compared to the broader market [2][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of May 9-15, 2025, the total transaction of new homes in 38 key cities was 24,616 units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% but a month-on-month increase of 72.9%. The total transaction area was 2.608 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a month-on-month increase of 69.1% [4][21] - In the same week, the total transaction of second-hand homes in 16 key cities was 20,827 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% and a month-on-month increase of 88.9%. The total transaction area was 1.99 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 87% [4][33] 3. Market Dynamics - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.874 million square meters, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0% and a de-stocking cycle of 146.7 weeks. The land supply for the week was 1.585 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4% [5] - The total issuance of credit bonds by real estate companies was 4.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.39% but a month-on-month decrease of 27.49% [5] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable and well-performing leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to effectively respond to market fluctuations under the current policy environment [8][14]