碳酸锂：企业发布复产研究公告，成本腰斩，偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of lithium carbonate hit a new low. The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate declined, with positions decreasing and then stabilizing, followed by an increase in positions and a price drop. The 2507 contract closed at 61,800 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan/ton week-on-week, the 2509 contract closed at 63,200 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the spot price dropped 750 yuan/ton to 64,500 yuan/ton [1]. - The cost of lithium salt has decreased due to the steeper decline in lithium ore prices. The operating cost of the Finniss mine in Australia has been optimized, creating supply increments. The domestic lithium carbonate operating rate has increased to 48%, and the daily output has reached 2,376 tons. However, the demand in the terminal market has only slightly recovered, with the export of energy storage batteries decreasing due to tariffs, and the cathode material inventory is actively being reduced. The social inventory has shifted from destocking to stockpiling [2]. - The future price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain weakly volatile. Based on a 680 - dollar lithium ore price, the cost bottom has shifted down to 60,000 yuan/ton, and the high - cost mines have not stopped production, leading to a continuous collapse of the bottom support. The fundamentals are expected to remain weak in both supply and demand [3]. - For unilateral trading, a bearish view is taken, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range from 55,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, the 7 - 9 spread is at the lower limit of statistical arbitrage, and a positive spread arbitrage is recommended. A 30% sell - hedging is suggested [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The report presents the price overview of the lithium industry chain spot market, including the prices and price changes of various lithium products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore [8]. 2. Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - End (Lithium Ore) - The report shows the average price trends of spodumene concentrate, including long - term trends and recent trends [12]. 3. Lithium Salt Middle - Stream Consumption - End (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple charts are provided, including the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate in different regions, the production volume and operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, and the import and export volume of lithium carbonate [15][19][23]. 4. Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - End (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report includes charts on the apparent consumption and inventory available days of lithium carbonate in China, the monthly production volume and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of various types of power lithium batteries [24][26][27].