花生：关注上量

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Spot Market: The peanut spot market has entered an oil - merchant separation phase. With the seasonal off - peak for peanut oil, peanut meal prices have slightly adjusted downward following soybean meal. Some oil mills have completed their essential stockpiling, while some may face partial shutdowns due to insufficient subsequent arrivals. As most farmers have finished sowing, some are selling their remaining peanuts. With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, there is essential stockpiling, leading to a concentration of peanut trading. The cost of intermediate inventories has not been profitable, and the cost of general peanuts has risen, resulting in firm and rising commodity quotes [2]. - Futures Market: The futures market is expected to be mainly volatile. From mid - May to mid - June, the remaining peanuts of farmers and grassroots traders will be forced out of the market, and some low - quality peanuts may temporarily lower prices. High import costs and risks limit the import space for traders. The market should focus on the new peanut sowing situation, and if the weather in the North China region is dry, the futures price may continue to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot Market: As of May 15, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase from the previous week. The spot market showed a steady - to - strong trend, with trading sentiment warming up and prices gradually rising. Factors such as the depletion of grassroots stocks and the impact of the busy farming season on supply led to a low volume of peanuts on the market. The sowing progress of the new season was delayed due to dry weather, and the subsequent growth situation remained uncertain [1]. - Futures Market: In the week of May 16, peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main peanut contract (PK2510) was 8268 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8102 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8232 yuan/ton (compared to 8106 yuan/ton the previous week) [1]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Spot Market: The market has entered an oil - merchant separation phase. Peanut oil is in a seasonal off - peak, and peanut meal prices have slightly adjusted downward. Some oil mills may face partial shutdowns. With the end of the sowing season for most farmers, some are selling their remaining peanuts. There is essential stockpiling for the Dragon Boat Festival, and the concentration of trading has led to rising prices [2]. - Futures Market: It will be mainly volatile. From mid - May to mid - June, the forced sale of remaining peanuts may temporarily lower prices. High import costs and risks limit imports. The new sowing situation is crucial, and dry weather in North China may drive up the futures price [2]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts has strengthened, while the basis of Sudanese refined peanuts has weakened [5]. - Spread: The 11 - 1 spread has weakened (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread has also weakened [6]. 3.4 Price Data The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan has increased by about 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan has risen, while the price of Sudanese refined peanuts has remained stable [10][11]. 3.5 Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oil - type peanut markets was about 0.58 million tons, a 18.1% increase from the previous week and a 57.66% increase compared to the same period last year. - The arrival volume of 14 commodity - type peanut markets was about 0.54 million tons, a 31.78% increase from the previous week and a 78.83% increase compared to the same period last year. - The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.12 million tons, a 24.33% increase from the previous week and a 67.22% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of peanuts has remained stable [12]. 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.27 million tons, a 22.93% increase from the previous week but a 44% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton, with most oil mills raising their quotes, and there was some negotiation space for actual transactions. - The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, with most oil mills adjusting their prices upward following soybean meal. Downstream feed mills were either consuming their inventories or waiting and watching, with weak purchasing willingness. - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was - 44.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.72 yuan/ton from the previous week. - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 13.27%, a 3.51% increase from the previous week but a 13.62% decrease compared to the same period last year. - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 2.36 million tons, a 36.36% increase from the previous week but a 50.64% decrease compared to the same period last year [18]. 3.7 Inventory - The peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, while the peanut oil inventory of oil mills has remained stable [20].