生猪：交易累库及存量预期印证

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (5.12 - 5.18), the spot price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted, with the price of 20KG piglets in Henan at 44.1 yuan/kg (last week 45 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan at 14.85 yuan/kg (last week 15 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The average national slaughter weight decreased by 0.07% week - on - week. The futures price of live pigs was weak, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13660 yuan/ton (last week 13925 yuan/ton), and the basis of the LH2509 contract was 1190 yuan/ton (last week 1075 yuan/ton) [2]. - Next week (5.19 - 5.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter has a greater impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. The LH2509 contract price has a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15000 yuan/ton. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 - 3 butterfly spread opportunity [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (5.12 - 5.18) - Spot Market: The price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted. On the supply side, in May, the group showed no intention to actively sell and reduce weight, and individual farmers sold pigs in a rolling manner. On the demand side, the frozen - fresh price difference continued to support regular demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening weakened after the festival. The average national slaughter weight decreased by 0.07% week - on - week [2]. - Futures Market: The futures price of live pigs was weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 14060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13660 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract was 1190 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (5.19 - 5.25) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. From the supply perspective, after the replenishment from February to April, the empty pen rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening have decreased, and the inventory accumulation progress has accelerated, but there is still room for inventory accumulation. From the demand perspective, it is currently the off - season for consumption, with an increase in the demand for frozen - to - fresh conversion, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. Overall, the speculative demand in May is still supported, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - Futures Market: The price of the LH2509 contract decreased due to the confirmation of long - term expectations by piglet and feed data and the confirmation of inventory accumulation by the slaughter of fattened pigs. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 - 3 butterfly spread opportunity. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - Basis and Monthly Spread: This week, the basis was 1190 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of LH2507 - LH2509 was - 255 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: The average slaughter weight this week was 126.4KG (last week 126.51KG). In March, the pork production was 5.08 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [9][12].