KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-18 08:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the reduction of tariffs between China and the United States has boosted downstream demand, leading to a renewed focus on coal allocation [3][4] - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again, supported by stable dividends and favorable macroeconomic policies [4][12] - The report emphasizes the cyclical elasticity of coal stocks, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, indicating potential for recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Logic - The coal sector is seen as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies [4][12] - The cyclical nature of coal stocks suggests that prices may rebound following the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming construction season [4][12] - Key coal stocks are identified based on dividend potential, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum exposure, and growth potential [4][12] 2. Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector experienced a slight increase of 1.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 11.8, and the PB ratio is 1.17, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [7][9] 3. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of May 16, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is 614 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous week [3][15] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, reflecting a slight increase [3][15] - Daily coal consumption at coastal power plants has risen to 180.5 thousand tons, an increase of 4.09% [3][15] 4. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1320 RMB/ton [3][16] - The average daily iron output from major steel mills is 244.7 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.41% [3][16] - The profitability of domestic steel mills is reported at 59.29%, indicating resilience in downstream operations [3][16] 5. Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, highlighting a trend towards higher dividend payouts in the sector [4][12][13]