烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力，PVC：偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Caustic Soda: Short - term fluctuations, with pressure in the later period. Although affected by the supply disruption of bauxite in Guinea and the rise of alumina, there is a lack of continuous upward drive from the fundamental perspective. The downstream inventory - building sustainability determines the rebound duration. In the future, it will still be in a high - production pattern, and profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand in the later period [5][6]. - PVC: Weak and fluctuating. Although the Sino - US phased reconciliation has a positive impact on sentiment, the current high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. High production is difficult to change in the short term, and high - inventory pressure persists. Profit compression and supply reduction are required to balance supply and demand [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable product in Shandong is about 2,594 yuan/ton. The 09 basis of caustic soda has strengthened, and the 7 - 9 spread has oscillated at a low level. The 50 - 32 alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is positive for caustic soda. The export expectation in May has improved, mainly due to the resumption of nickel production capacity in Indonesia [11][16][21]. - Spread Analysis: The market contradiction is first reflected in the spread, which will return in the medium term. The 50 - 32 alkali spread is an advanced indicator of the market. The export profit is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the signing of export orders. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is generally limited [21][29][30]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production has declined, and inventory has increased. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 82.6%, a 1.3% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a 7.09% increase from the previous week and a 1.74% increase from the same period last year [37][38]. - Maintenance and New Capacity: Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from June to August. In 2025, the new caustic soda production capacity will be 2.55 million tons, with a capacity increase of 5.2%. However, considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity launch may be lower than expected [44][47]. - Profit and Downstream: The price of liquid chlorine has declined, the price of caustic soda has increased, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined. The current profit situation is very good, and power - self - supplying enterprises have no motivation to reduce production, while grid - power enterprises still have a large profit margin. The start - up of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform has different trends [48][51][53]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina Industry: Alumina production and inventory have declined, and profits have rebounded. Most alumina enterprises are still in a loss state, and new maintenance and production - reduction capacities are gradually increasing. Low - profit situations weaken the inventory - building efforts for caustic soda. The new production line of Weiqiao in May is expected to increase short - term demand for caustic soda, while the caustic soda procurement efforts of Wenfeng may weaken next month [73][77][84]. - Non - Aluminum Industries: The pulp industry has capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up has declined. The start - up of the finished paper industry has decreased month - on - month. The start - up of the viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has recovered, and the short - term demand has warmed up. The start - up of the water treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, and the start - up of the ternary precursor industry has been stable [86][97][100]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - Price and Spread: The PVC basis has weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread has strengthened [114]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The start - up of PVC has declined month - on - month but has not reached the level of production reduction in 2023. After mid - May 2025, PVC maintenance has gradually increased. There will be 2.1 million tons of new PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, and there will be concentrated production capacity launches from June to July. The profit of northwest integrated plants has declined but has not yet reached a loss state [117][118][119]. - Demand: PVC downstream industries have increased month - on - month, and PVC production enterprises and social inventories are in the process of destocking. The number of warehouse receipts will rise again [124][129][130].