豆粕：暂无驱动，低位震荡，豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of May 16, 2025, the prices of US soybean futures first rose and then fell. The prices rose due to the substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, and the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", as well as the bullish May USDA report. The prices fell because of concerns about biodiesel policies. The main 07 contract of US soybeans had a weekly decline of 0.12%, and the main 07 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decline of 0.75% [2]. - In the same week, domestic soybean meal futures prices showed mixed trends, and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated horizontally. Under the background of the easing of China - US trade frictions, soybean meal futures prices were generally weak, but recently the market was mainly in a volatile state. For soybean No. 1, the spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures had no clear guidance and mainly fluctuated following other soybean varieties. The main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly decline of 0.00%, and the main a2507 contract of soybean No. 1 had a weekly increase of 0.36% [3]. - In the coming week (May 19 - 23, 2025), it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 will fluctuate. The easing of China - US trade frictions is bullish for the US soybean futures prices and bearish for domestic soybean meal. It is expected that the market will shift to fundamental trading, and more attention should be paid to the weather, planting, and early growth in the US soybean - producing areas. For domestic soybean No. 1, due to the small amount of remaining grain in the market, strong spot prices, and the market waiting for state - reserve soybean sales, the prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean net sales: In the week of May 8, 2025, for the 2024/25 US soybean exports, the weekly export shipments were about 430,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 66%; the cumulative export shipments were about 43.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales were about 280,000 tons, and the next - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 490,000 tons, with a total of about 770,000 tons, in line with expectations (550,000 - 1,000,000 tons). The weekly net sales to China in the current and next crop years were both 0 [3]. - US soybean planting progress: As of the week of May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 48% (market expectation was 47%), compared with 35% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 37%, which was on the fast side and had a slightly bearish impact [3]. - May USDA report: The report was slightly bullish. It first estimated the global soybean supply - demand balance for 2025/26, showing an increase in production, a higher increase in consumption than production, a slight increase in ending stocks, and a decrease in the stock - to - use ratio, indicating a tightening of the global soybean supply - demand situation. It also lowered the ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios of US soybeans in 2024/25 and 2025/26, directly benefiting US soybeans [3]. - Brazilian soybean CNF premiums, import costs, and crushing margins: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average CNF premiums of Brazilian soybeans from June to August decreased week - on - week, the average import costs increased week - on - week, and the average crushing margins decreased week - on - week [3]. - Weather forecast in US soybean - producing areas: According to the May 17, 2025, weather forecast, in the next two weeks (May 17 - June 1, 2025), there would be more precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas (more precipitation on May 19 - 20 and less in other periods), and the temperature would first be low and then high, with a neutral impact [3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Trading volume: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 80,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease from about 260,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Pick - up volume: The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 157,000 tons, a week - on - week increase from about 150,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - Basis: The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 168 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease from about 287 yuan/ton in the previous week and compared with about - 94 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of May 9, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 70,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 6% and a year - on - year decrease of about 86% [5]. - Soybean crushing volume: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase from 1.85 million tons in the previous week. The next week (May 17 - 23, 2025), the expected crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons [5]. - Imported soybean auctions: On May 13, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction about 42,800 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of about 150,000 tons and a transaction rate of about 35%. On May 21, 2025, it planned to auction 267,000 tons of imported soybeans [5]. Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - Soybean prices: In the week of May 16, 2025, the net - grain purchase prices of soybeans in some parts of Northeast China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4,180 - 4,280 yuan/ton; in some parts of the Inner Pass region, they increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,100 - 5,240 yuan/ton; the sales prices of Northeast edible soybeans in the sales areas remained the same as the previous week at 4,520 - 4,720 yuan/ton [6]. - New - season soybean planting in the Northeast: In the new - season crop sowing period in the Northeast, in some areas with sufficient accumulated temperature and suitable soil conditions, dry - land sowing was completed and entered the field management stage. Due to wet or dry soil in other areas, farmers were waiting for a better sowing time. The purchase volume of trade entities was slow, and the purchase prices were slightly increased [6]. - State - reserve soybean sales: The sporadic sales of local regulatory reserves in Heilongjiang were in the final stage, and the market was still waiting for subsequent state - reserve soybean sales [6]. - Market demand in sales areas: Due to high temperatures and sufficient vegetable supplies in many domestic areas, the demand for soybean products was suppressed, with slow overall transactions, difficulty in price increases, and cautious procurement from the origin [6].