电力行业投资策略：高耗能行业绿电消纳要求有望提振绿电环境价值

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards a more relaxed power supply and demand environment, highlighting the importance of stable profitability in the power industry [3] - The introduction of mandatory green electricity consumption ratios for high-energy-consuming industries is expected to stimulate the green certificate market and enhance its value [4][5] - The green certificate supply shock is anticipated to end by the end of 2025, leading to improved market conditions [12][13] Summary by Sections Supply - The supply shock caused by the issuance of green certificates is expected to conclude by the end of 2025, with a total of 47.34 billion green certificates issued in 2024, including 31.58 billion that are tradable [4][12] - The green certificate issuance is projected to grow, with estimates of around 25 billion in 2025 and reaching 40 billion by 2030 [20][21] Demand - The mandatory consumption policies for high-energy industries are likely to drive an increase in green certificate consumption, with only 14.12% of the issued certificates being traded in 2024 [5][24] - The electricity consumption of high-energy industries accounted for 27.32% of the total social electricity consumption in 2024, indicating significant potential for green certificate demand [5][27] Outlook - The green certificate market is expected to experience a recovery post-2025, with improved consumption policies likely to enhance trading volumes and prices [32] - The report suggests that the green certificate prices may return to reasonable levels, significantly boosting the profitability of renewable energy operators [6][34] Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include high-quality, low-valuation renewable energy operators such as Datang Renewable, Longyuan Power, China Power, and others [36][37]