国泰君安期货锡周报-20250518

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin present a situation of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 254,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly tin price maintained a volatile pattern with a slight increase of less than 1%. The current fundamentals remain in a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Although there was an unexpected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, the long - term fundamentals of tin prices are still weak, and the back structure highlights the price expectation. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when the price is high based on the logic of weakening macro - demand and increasing supply near the middle of the year [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 83 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium fell to 800 yuan/ton [9]. - Overseas premiums were basically flat compared with last week, and the premium in Southeast Asia increased slightly [14]. 1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from contango to back structure [17]. 1.3 Inventory - This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 203 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 234 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 148 tons [22]. - This week, the LME inventory decreased by 55 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants increased to 13.89% [25]. 1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 144,840 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in the outflow direction [31]. 1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [33]. - This week, the trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [39]. 1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [45]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 2.1 Tin Ore - In March 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 6,344 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the import volume was 8,323 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 55.44% [49]. - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan decreased to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,800 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore decreased slightly [50]. 2.2 Smelting - In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,080 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [52]. 2.3 Import - In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,101 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net import was 428 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 1,093 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 8,039 yuan/ton [62]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.1 Consumption - In March 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,708 tons, and the actual consumption was 13,379 tons, showing a slight increase from the previous month [66]. 3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fees remained stable, and the monthly operating rate of solder enterprises in March increased slightly [68]. 3.3 End - User Consumption - In March 2025, the output of end - user products generally increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The output of integrated circuits, air conditioners, and washing machines reached the highest values over the years [75]. - In March 2025, the consumption performance of household appliances and new energy increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [77]. - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as the tin price [83].