铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250518

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is under pressure due to weak consumption, and it is expected to remain weak in the medium - term. The ADC12 - A00 basis may continue to converge, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][6]. - The supply side of scrap aluminum is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The alloy production rate shows a downward trend. The consumption off - season is deepening, and downstream demand is weak, mainly for rigid needs [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production, shipment volume, and imports are at high levels, but the year - on - year growth rate of imports is declining. Social inventory is at a historically high - middle level. The price of scrap aluminum is firm, and the refined - scrap price difference is at a relatively low level with a slight rebound [9][11][15]. - Currently, there is a seasonal shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Recyclers have limited inventory, and due to the tight supply of circulating goods, they are reluctant to sell. The price is firm and stable. The profit of scrap aluminum extrusion alloy plants is squeezed, and they are now in a loss stage. In May, it is expected that the production rate of casting aluminum alloy plants will be adjusted downward, reducing the demand for scrap aluminum [6]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy is in a short - term sideways movement, and the ADC12 - A00 spread continues to converge. The regional price difference shows that the southwest region is relatively weak [22][25]. - The production rate of casting aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the explicit and implicit inventories have increased. The import window for casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [35][39]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are provided, and the production proportion of different regions is also given [43][44]. Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The peak consumption season for automobiles in the first half of the year is relatively weak, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption market. Downstream orders show a marginal weakening trend in the second quarter, and restocking is relatively cautious. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises is poor, mainly for rigid needs [6][48].