铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250518

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of Trump's reciprocal tariffs has led to a significant return of market risk sentiment, giving a large price increase to aluminum prices. The annual primary aluminum demand growth rate has been revised up to over 2%, and potential mid - year lows may be new buying points in the second half of the year. The downward space of aluminum prices in the second half of the second quarter and July - August depends on the decline in photovoltaic module production schedules [3]. - The sudden revocation of mining licenses in Guinea may have a large impact on the production of the second - largest bauxite project in the country. The short - term spot supply of alumina is tight, and the sustainability needs to be dynamically evaluated with the operating capacity. In the medium - to - long term, if the capacity event of converting aluminum hydroxide to alumina does not become an industry - wide regulatory event and Guinea's mining production returns to normal, the overall supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [4]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Aluminum - Price Impact: The cancellation of reciprocal tariffs led to the unwinding of hedging positions such as long copper and short aluminum, resulting in a significant rebound in aluminum prices. The annual primary aluminum demand growth rate has been revised up to over 2%. The downward space of aluminum prices in the second half of Q2 and July - August depends on the decline in photovoltaic module production schedules [3]. - Inventory: As of May 15, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 41,000 tons to 588,000 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - Downstream Production: As of May 16, the weekly total output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased for the third consecutive week, while the output of aluminum profiles increased week - on - week, but the sample production schedule declined [3]. - Processing Profit: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday, and the current downstream processing profit has fallen to the low - middle level of the same period over the years [3]. 2. Alumina - Price Impact: The cancellation of reciprocal tariffs, the tight spot supply, and the sudden revocation of mining licenses in Guinea led to a sharp rise in the AO futures market on Friday night [4]. - Inventory: As of May 15, the total alumina inventory decreased. The all - caliber social inventory of Alumina decreased by 42,000 tons to 3.246 million tons according to Aladdin, and by 47,000 tons to 3.844 million tons according to Mysteel [4][51]. - Production: As of May 15, the national total operating capacity of alumina was 80.9 million tons, with a weekly increase of 400,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a high level in recent years [69]. 3. Trading - end (Spread, Volume, Open Interest) - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai aluminum has shifted to a B - structure, and the term B - structure of alumina has narrowed [7]. - Open Interest and Volume: The open interest of the main Shanghai aluminum contract increased while the trading volume decreased. The open interest and trading volume of the main alumina contract both increased [12]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai alumina decreased. The ratio of Shanghai aluminum is still higher than the same period last year, while that of alumina is at a historically low level [17]. 4. Inventory (Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, Processed Materials) - Bauxite: Port inventory and inventory days increased. As of May 16, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 640,000 tons week - on - week according to Mysteel. In April, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises decreased significantly. Port shipments, sea - floating inventory, outbound and inbound volumes all declined [21][27][28]. - Alumina: The national total inventory decreased. The all - caliber social inventory of Alumina decreased by 42,000 tons to 3.246 million tons according to Aladdin as of May 15 [51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory continued to decline rapidly. As of May 15, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 41,000 tons to 588,000 tons [57]. - Processed Materials: The spot and in - factory inventories of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the inventory - to - raw material ratio of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly [58][61]. 5. Production (Output, Capacity, Operating Rate) - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, but there were differences in production changes among provinces in April. For example, the production of bauxite in Shanxi decreased significantly according to Mysteel but increased slightly according to SMM [64]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate continued to decline. The total operating capacity of alumina was 80.9 million tons as of May 15, with a weekly increase of 400,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with the previous week [69]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May 15, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 84,273 tons according to Mysteel, an increase of 1,400 tons compared with the previous week [73]. - Downstream Processing: The output of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased slightly. The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises decreased, and the micro - situation remains to be observed [74][78]. 6. Profit (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, Processed Materials) - Alumina: Profits recovered. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 187.3 yuan/ton according to Mysteel. Profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan increased, and the profit in Guangxi was better than other regions [88]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Profits fully recovered, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. The decline in upstream prices and the consumption peak season in industries such as construction and automobiles supported aluminum prices, but global macro - economic complexity and trade policy changes increased uncertainties [95]. - Processed Materials: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [96]. 7. Consumption (Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, Apparent Demand) - Import Profit and Loss: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [104]. - Export: In April 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation [106][109]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for aluminum rods increased significantly, and the monthly output of automobiles increased significantly month - on - month [113].