信用分析周报：信用利差被动压缩-20250518

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees, mainly due to the passive compression caused by the upward movement of the risk - free rate, and the adjustment of credit bonds may not have arrived yet [1][29][32]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed this week, and maintaining a short - end sinking coupon strategy still has a relative advantage [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed this week. In the current environment, a defensive approach is still recommended, and attention should be paid to the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed this week, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening. It is recommended to continue to focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Overview - Primary Market: This week, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of credit bonds increased compared with last week. The issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees [3][6][10]. - Secondary Market: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week, and the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds generally increased. The yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds were generally compressed, with a small number of bank capital bond maturities and varieties slightly widening [3][13][14]. 3.2 Primary Market - Net Financing Scale: This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 77.3 billion yuan, an increase of 56.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 45.6 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 34.3 billion yuan, an increase of 78.1 billion yuan [6]. - Issuance Cost: This week, the issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased the most, by 44 BP compared with last week [10][12][13]. 3.3 Secondary Market - Trading Volume: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 30.3 billion yuan, 113.6 billion yuan, and 191.1 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 7.6 billion yuan [13]. - Turnover Rate: This week, the turnover rate of credit bonds generally increased compared with last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities increased by 0.19 pct, 0.67 pct, 1.36 pct, and 0.22 pct respectively [14]. - Yield: This week, the yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year decreased by 4 - 6 BP, those with a maturity of 1 - 3 years decreased by 2 - 4 BP, and those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years fluctuated by no more than 1 BP. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years, 7 - 10 years, and over 10 years increased by 0 - 5 BP [18]. - Credit Spread: - Industry - wide: This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees. The spreads of the AA + electronics industry and the AAA agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry were significantly compressed [21]. - Urban Investment Bonds: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds were compressed by 6 BP, 8 BP, 7 BP, 5 BP, and 2 BP respectively [25]. - Industrial Bonds: This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed. The credit spreads of 10Y private placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds of different ratings were compressed by 1 - 2 BP compared with last week, while the compression of other maturities was 5 BP or more [29]. - Bank Capital Bonds: This week, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening [32]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinion - The "23 Xinjie 01" issued by Xinjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. was extended; the "H20 Technology 1" issued by Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. was extended; Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Holding Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list, and its "20 Quwengkong Bond 01" and "21 Quwengkong Bond 01" were also put on the watch list; the "Shengxun Convertible Bond" issued by Beijing Shengxun Electronic Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list [1][37]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - For urban investment bonds, maintain a short - end sinking coupon strategy [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, adopt a defensive approach and focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38].