策略周报：蓄势待催化-20250518

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent US-China trade talks have led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariffs, boosting market confidence and suggesting a positive outlook for the fundamentals and A-share earnings trend [3][12]. - The April social financing stock growth rate has rebounded to 8.7% year-on-year, indicating that the upward trend in fundamentals and A-share earnings remains intact [3][12]. - The technology sector is expected to see a resurgence as market sentiment stabilizes, with potential for higher elasticity once risk appetite improves [29][39]. Group 2 - The report highlights that industries closely related to exports, such as e-commerce, chemical fibers, and shipping ports, have shown significant recovery following the positive outcomes of the US-China tariff negotiations [28]. - The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers like Tencent and Alibaba has decreased in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, but remains significantly higher than the average levels of recent years, indicating a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term trend [35][36]. - The report notes that the domestic demand for Chinese-made computing chips is strengthening due to increased restrictions on chip exports to China, presenting opportunities for local chip manufacturers [36][39]. Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing challenges faced by Chinese concept stocks in the US market, emphasizing the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for these companies to attract international investors through listings in Hong Kong [49]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sectors, with automotive, non-bank financials, and transportation seeing significant inflows, while TMT sectors like computing and media experienced notable outflows [44][46]. - The report also mentions that the recent performance of the social financing structure indicates a shift in market dynamics, with government bonds becoming a primary driver of social financing [20][24].