工业硅或部分复产，多晶硅关注正套机会

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility / Polysilicon: Volatility [1] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices continue to decline, with some small factories planning further production cuts, but partial resumption in Sichuan and potential resumption of large Xinjiang factories. Demand remains weak, and future spot prices are not optimistic [1][9]. - Polysilicon prices first rose and then fell. After the production - cut meeting, no clear plan was given. The market is trading based on reality. The company has lowered the production schedule for May and June, and polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory [1][11]. - For investment, it is not recommended to go long on industrial silicon on the left - hand side, and consider short - selling on rebounds. For polysilicon, an arbitrage strategy is recommended, focusing on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2507 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8145 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blowing 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon also declined. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 980 yuan/ton to 36850 yuan/ton, and the N - type re - feeding material transaction price also dropped [7][8]. 2. Industrial Silicon May Partially Resume Production, Polysilicon Focus on Positive Spread Opportunities Industrial Silicon - This week, industrial silicon futures rebounded and then fell. Zhou production was 6.92 tons, a decrease of 3.94%. Social inventory increased by 0.3 tons, and sample factory inventory decreased by 1.73 tons. Demand is weak, and future prices are not optimistic [9]. Organic Silicon - This week, organic silicon prices declined slightly. The overall enterprise start - up rate was about 58.95%, an increase of 3.17pct. Zhou production was 3.90 tons, an increase of 3.17%, and inventory was 4.69 tons, a decrease of 5.06%. Short - term prices may rebound slightly, but the long - term supply surplus problem remains [9][10]. Polysilicon - This week, polysilicon futures prices first rose and then fell. The company has lowered the production schedule for May to about 9.3 tons and for June to 9 tons. Polysilicon is expected to reduce inventory in May and June. The average spot selling price has fallen below the cash cost line, and the production - cut action is still being negotiated [11]. Silicon Wafers - This week, silicon wafer prices continued to fall. As of May 15th, factory inventory was 19.44GW, an increase of 1.31GW. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. Battery Cells - This week, battery cell prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was 58 - 59GW. Inventory has accumulated, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [13]. Components - This week, component prices continued to fall. In May, the production schedule was about 54GW, and the expected production schedule for June is 50GW. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the low - price range [13]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Industrial silicon: Do not recommend going long on the left - hand side, consider short - selling on rebounds, and pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Recommend an arbitrage strategy, focus on positive spread opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508, and continue to pay attention to supply - side changes and spot conditions [2][15]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Ruoqiang County's second - phase 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon compliance capacity project: The industrial silicon indicator of Fuhai County will be transferred to Xinjiang TBEA Loulan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. for project construction [16]. - Hongyuan Green Energy plans to transfer 27.0737% of the equity of Inner Mongolia Xinyuan for 1.245 billion yuan to optimize resource allocation and focus on core business [16]. - Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project is under publicity, with an investment of 1.495 billion yuan [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides various data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, production, inventory, and profit data [6]