下游需求超预期，钢铁价格反弹

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" with expectations of a growth rate exceeding 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [67]. Core Insights - Downstream demand has shown resilience, leading to a rebound in steel prices, which supports the overall profitability of steel companies [5][67]. - The report highlights a significant increase in black futures prices, with rebar closing at 3082 CNY/ton, up 1.99%, and hot-rolled coil at 3226 CNY/ton, up 2.19% [12][30]. - The total apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.3061 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.96 million tons [14]. - Steel inventory has decreased, with total inventory for the five major products at 19.5837 million tons, down 5.56 million tons year-on-year [17]. - The report notes a decline in pig iron production, while electric arc furnace utilization rates have increased, indicating a shift in production dynamics [29]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The steel sector has underperformed, with a decline of 0.43% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.76% [9]. - The report indicates a strong rebound in black futures prices, with iron ore prices also increasing [12][32]. Consumption and Inventory - Apparent consumption of major steel products increased, with rebar and hot-rolled coil consumption rising year-on-year [14]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening supply [17]. Production Dynamics - Pig iron production has decreased slightly, while electric arc furnace operating rates have improved, suggesting a shift towards more efficient production methods [29]. - The profitability per ton of steel remains stable, with a slight increase in margins for rebar and hot-rolled products [36][44]. Downstream Demand - Downstream demand remains robust, with notable increases in cement and automotive sales, indicating a healthy construction and manufacturing sector [56].