周观：关税缓和后，如何看待债券的布局点位？（2025年第19期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yields of 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds in China increased. The market responded to the results of the tariff negotiations in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [1][2] - The long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve. The US Treasury yield curve shows a "✓" shape, and the tariff policy and interest rate policy affect each other [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views Q1: How to view the subsequent long - and short - term factors and layout points for bonds? - This week (2025.5.12 - 2025.5.16), the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.416% to 1.445%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.625% to 1.679% [1] - The market's reaction to the tariff negotiation results was basically completed in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [2] Q2: How will the yield of US Treasury bonds change after the release of a series of US data? - This week (0512 - 0516), the long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock (about 4.5%) and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/05/12 to 2025/05/16, the central bank conducted open - market operations, with a net withdrawal of 4751 billion yuan [39] - The money market interest rates and the yields of various bonds showed certain changes this week [41][112] 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area increased, and steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose [60][62] - The prices of coking coal, thermal coal, and crude oil, as well as the vegetable price index and other data showed certain trends [67][70][72] 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 51 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 197.25 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 26.136 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 171.114 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [75] - Eight provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Anhui, Guangxi, and Shandong ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [77] - No local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 1598.944 billion yuan of such bonds have been issued [78] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 50.75 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 430.667 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.85%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [91] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - The local bond issuance plan shows the expected issuance amount and maturity yield changes for different terms [96] 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 125 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 120.549 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.033 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 17.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.311 billion yuan compared with last week [95] - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 25.018 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was 7.534 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amounts of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes were - 40.655 billion yuan, 15.903 billion yuan, - 3.51 billion yuan, 15.262 billion yuan, and - 4.484 billion yuan respectively [101][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds decreasing, and enterprise bonds increasing [106] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total credit bond trading volume was 598.559 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [110] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds increased across the board this week, while the yields of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes generally decreased, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased [112][113][114] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing notes, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all narrowed [116][119][121] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes and enterprise bonds generally narrowed, while the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [126][130][133] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and daily consumption [139] 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - The subject rating of AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the subject rating of Suzhou Shishan Business Innovation Development Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded [143]