策略周报：蓄势待催化

Economic Outlook - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in a joint statement agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariffs, boosting market confidence[3] - In April, the total social financing (TSF) stock growth rate rebounded to 8.7% year-on-year, indicating an upward trend in fundamentals and A-share earnings[3] - The market may lack strong upward catalysts in the short term, but the risk of decline is limited due to ongoing fundamental recovery and policy expectations[3] Market Trends - The BOCIASI fast and slow line indicators reached highs of 58.4% and 33.6% respectively, indicating a weakening trend in the technology sector's stock price recovery[3] - Despite a noticeable decline in capital expenditure for Tencent and Alibaba in Q1 2025, their absolute spending remains significantly above historical averages, suggesting a temporary adjustment rather than a long-term trend[35] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand for computing chips due to US export restrictions on Chinese companies[36] Investment Strategies - The automotive sector saw a net inflow of 96.70 billion yuan, while the TMT sectors (technology, media, telecommunications) experienced significant outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[44] - The report suggests a focus on sectors like computing and AI, which are expected to gain traction as domestic chip manufacturers recover from supply constraints[39] - The potential for a new trend formation in growth stocks is anticipated, with investors advised to wait for incremental catalysts[3]