A股策略周报20250518：当下是相对不重要的

Market Overview - The recent US-China trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, leading to a significant rebound in the Vietnamese stock market, while the Chinese export chain still has over 50% of sectors and stocks yet to recover to pre-April levels[3] - The A-share market experienced a recovery to levels seen on April 2, followed by a decline, indicating a loss of market direction post-trade conflict easing[3] - US assets, including US Treasuries and equities, showed notable gains, with the S&P 500 turning positive year-to-date, supported by favorable domestic news such as lower-than-expected inflation in April[3] Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show signs of weakness in soft data, while hard data remains resilient, indicating a persistent downward trend since Q1 2025[4] - China's economic recovery is hindered by the fading effects of previous policy stimuli, with potential downward pressure on demand as new policies take time to implement[4] - The trade negotiation process is expected to be fraught with uncertainty, reminiscent of the 2018 tariff negotiations, which could lead to further volatility in market sentiment[4][28] Investment Strategy - Current thematic investments are active but are unlikely to regain the momentum seen in Q1 2025 due to a lack of new catalysts in core technology sectors[5] - Recommended sectors for investment include home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics, and online retail, which are expected to benefit from the establishment of a long-term domestic consumption mechanism[6] - The restructuring of China's foreign trade system may gradually reveal the value of certain advantageous industries, such as machinery and automotive manufacturing[6] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in domestic inventory cycles could exceed expectations, impacting the manufacturing sector's performance[45] - Adjustments in industry structures may take longer than anticipated, leading to premature exposure of mid-term issues and affecting market sentiment[45]