贸易烈度大幅度降低，美元短期回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The substantial progress in Sino-US trade negotiations has reduced short-term tariff risks and improved stock market sentiment, but inflation is expected to rise and consumer spending power will continue to be under pressure. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and the Fed's stance on higher inflation and interest rates also impact the market [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The US Treasury yield rose to 4.48%. The US dollar index rose 0.75% to 101, most non-US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB rose 0.41%, gold prices fell 3.6% to $3,204 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 17.2, and the spot commodity index rose. Brent crude oil rebounded 3.6% to $65 per barrel [1][5][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 surging 5.27%, the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.76%, the Hang Seng Index rising 2.09%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.67%. The progress in Sino-US trade negotiations reduced short-term tariff risks and improved stock market sentiment, but inflation expectations and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating had a negative impact on the stock market [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.48%. The Fed's stance on higher inflation and interest rates and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating suggest further upside potential for US Treasury yields. The Chinese bond market is expected to trade sideways in the short term [16][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.75% to 101, and most non-US currencies depreciated [29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.6% to $3,204 per ounce. Short-term gold prices are weak, but the medium- to long-term bull market remains intact. Brent crude oil rebounded 2.6% to $65 per barrel, and commodities as a whole closed higher [34] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The Sino-US trade negotiations achieved progress beyond expectations. The two sides reached an agreement that exceeded market expectations, and the tariff levels returned to before the reciprocal tariffs. The 24% reciprocal tariff imposed by the US on China was suspended for 90 days. The short-term confrontation in the trade war has eased, and market risk appetite has increased [37] 4. Next Week's Important Events - Monday: China's April retail sales and industrial added value data - Tuesday: China's May LPR, RBA interest rate decision - Wednesday: UK's April CPI - Thursday: Preliminary May manufacturing PMI data for France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US; ECB interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Japan's April CPI, US April new home sales [39]