钢铁行业周报（20250512-20250516）：宏观预期和基本面双修复，钢价待修复-20250518

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a recovery in both macro expectations and fundamentals, with steel prices expected to rebound [1]. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has started to decline from high levels, while foreign trade expectations have improved, leading to an increase in steel prices. The five major steel product prices have shown weekly increases, with rebar at 3,330 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,657 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,320 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,767 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,539 CNY/ton [1][2]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies has decreased to 2.4477 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply. Meanwhile, the total steel inventory has dropped by 454,100 tons to 14.3066 million tons, with social inventory decreasing by 393,700 tons [1][2]. - Demand has shown resilience, with total consumption of the five major steel products rising to 9.1376 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 685,600 tons [1][2]. Summary by Sections Production Data - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies is 2.4477 million tons, down 0.87% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points [1][2]. - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate has increased to 56.57%, up 1.49 percentage points week-on-week [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 463,900 tons, while hot-rolled coil consumption rose by 200,000 tons. However, cold-rolled coil consumption saw a slight decline of 5,100 tons [1][2]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory stands at 14.3066 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 454,100 tons. Social inventory has decreased to 9.9367 million tons, while steel mill inventory is at 4.3699 million tons [1][2]. Profitability - The average pig iron cost for 114 steel mills is 2,412 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for rebar is 103 CNY, for hot-rolled coil is 31 CNY, and for cold-rolled coil is -44 CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][2][3].