关税“压力测试”系列之八：美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架

Group 1: Tariff Impact on the US Economy - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on US imports has decreased to approximately 16%, yet remains at a historical high[15] - The average tariff on imports from China is now 42%, with the overall average tariff rate dropping from 27% to 16% following recent agreements[19] - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that these tariffs could reduce US GDP by 0.65 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.7 percentage points[23] Group 2: Monitoring Economic Indicators - The economic impact of tariffs can be monitored through three dimensions: trade, prices, and risk appetite[31] - In the short term, key economic indicators to watch include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures[2] - The first quarter saw a significant "import rush" in the US, with inventory levels rising, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable[2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming apparent, although the response of import prices has been insufficient so far[3] - Tariffs are expected to transmit increased costs from import prices to production and consumer prices, suppressing actual consumption demand[32] - There are signs that consumer purchasing power is weakening, with previous "panic buying" trends showing signs of exhaustion[3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The US economy may follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve[3] - High-frequency indicators suggest that investment, consumption, and employment in the US may weaken in the near term[3] - The potential for a "recession panic" cannot be ruled out if inflationary pressures continue to rise while economic growth slows[3]