全球资产配置每周聚焦：关税和地缘紧张局势缓解，权益上涨黄金回调-20250518

Global Asset Price Review - The geopolitical situation has eased, leading to a general rise in equity assets. Key events include the announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, progress in US-China trade talks, and support for a ceasefire in Ukraine by President Putin. This has resulted in increased global risk appetite, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showing significant gains [9][10] - As of May 16, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, and the US dollar index increased to 101.0. The US CPI's unexpected decline has boosted market risk appetite, with the S&P 500 rising by 5.27%, outperforming developed and emerging markets [9][10] - Commodity prices saw a decline in gold by 3.72%, while Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.27% [9][10] Global Fund Flows - There has been a significant outflow of domestic capital from the Chinese stock market, while passive foreign investments have surged into it. In the past week, domestic capital outflow from the Chinese stock market amounted to $4.529 billion, while foreign capital inflow was $0.059 billion [16] - In the US, fixed income funds saw an inflow of $6.82 billion, and equity funds experienced an inflow of $21.34 billion, indicating a strong preference for US markets [16] Global Asset Valuation - The implied equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets. The historical percentile for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index's implied ERP stands at 81% and 72%, respectively, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq have ERPs of 3%, 2%, and 6% [9][10] - The risk-adjusted returns for US equities have marginally increased, with the dynamic risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rising to 42% and 32%, respectively [9][10] Global Asset Risk Indicators - The proportion of bullish sentiment among US retail investors has risen by 6.48%, with over 80% of S&P stocks trading above their 20-day moving average [9][10] - In the A-share market, over 60% of stocks are above their 20-day moving average, indicating strong momentum. The options market shows a significant increase in bullish sentiment, with a notable rise in call option open interest for the CSI 300 [9][10] Global Economic Data - The US CPI unexpectedly decreased, with April's year-on-year growth at 2.3%, down from 2.4%. This decline in inflation may reduce the urgency for interest rate cuts, especially following positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [9][10]