Huachuang Securities·2025-05-18 13:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the container shipping sector due to high freight rates and increased demand driven by the recent US-China tariff adjustments [1][3]. Core Insights - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, leading to a surge in bilateral trade and a nearly 300% increase in container shipping bookings from China to the US [1][11]. - Freight rates on North American routes have significantly increased, with Shanghai to US West Coast and East Coast rates rising by 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2][12]. - The report anticipates a short-term surge in container demand due to a stocking wave, which may challenge port logistics and further influence freight rates [3][15]. Summary by Sections Section 1: US-China Tariff Developments - The US and China agreed to suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, leading to a rapid increase in trade and shipping demand [1][11]. - Container shipping bookings surged from an average of 5,709 TEUs to 21,530 TEUs within a week following the tariff adjustments [1][11]. Section 2: Market Demand and Freight Rates - The demand for shipping services has rebounded sharply, with significant increases in spot booking prices for shipping containers [2][12]. - As of May 16, 2025, the spot rates for shipping from Shanghai to the US West Coast and East Coast reached $3,091 and $4,069 per FEU, reflecting increases of 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2][12]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading container shipping companies such as COSCO Shipping Holdings, which is expected to benefit from rising freight rates on US routes [3][15]. - It also highlights the potential of regional shipping companies in Asia, suggesting that the ongoing trade tensions may sustain high demand in this segment [3][15]. Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a 4.8% year-on-year increase in domestic air passenger volume, indicating a recovery in the aviation sector [16][20]. - The report notes a 10% increase in the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) and a 4% increase in Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates, reflecting overall positive trends in the shipping industry [36][37].