市场形态周报（20250512-20250516）：本周指数涨跌不一-20250518

• The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as the market's fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[9] - Positive signals appeared 3465 times between April 30, 2025, and May 9, 2025, with an average future high-point success rate of 59.95%. Negative signals appeared 2996 times, with an average future low-point success rate of 37.32%[14] - Broad-based timing strategy signals indicate bullish signals for the SSE 50 and Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprise Index, while other broad-based signals remain neutral[16] - Industry timing strategy signals are constructed using the scissors difference ratio of long and short positions in industry index constituent stocks. If no bullish or bearish signals appear on a given day, the scissors difference value and ratio are set to zero. This model outperforms respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical backtesting performance[17] - Industry timing strategy signals show bullish signals for sectors such as retail, home appliances, textiles and apparel, utilities, consumer services, transportation, and banking, while other industry signals remain neutral[20]