固收专题:提前定价中美会谈,转债重视结构
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-18 14:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that in 2025, convertible bonds are in a new upward cycle due to full economic clearance and economic recovery. For example, the social financing growth rate has continuously rebounded from 7.8% in November 2024 to 8.7% in April 2025, and the year - on - year PPI of production materials has basically bottomed out [5]. - The market's low increase this week may be related to the market's pre - pricing of "Sino - US tariff reduction". The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term as it has fully priced in factors such as Sino - US tariffs and policy stimuli, waiting for new variables [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Major Asset Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All - A Index rose by 0.76% and 0.72% respectively, with the average daily trading volume of the whole market reaching 1.27 trillion yuan. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose by 5.27% and 7.15% respectively. The price of London gold fell by 3.75% [2]. - Convertible Bond Market Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.32%. As of May 16, the median convertible bond price, conversion premium rate, and pure bond premium rate were 120 yuan, 30.98%, and 14.74% respectively. Industries such as finance, automobiles, and banks performed well, and the market style changed significantly [2]. - Convertible Bond Terms: Qianglian and Xuerong did not redeem their convertible bonds, while Runda, Yingbo, and Haoneng are expected to meet the redemption conditions. Jialian lowered the conversion price [3]. Market Dynamics - Sino - US Trade Policy Adjustment: On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released a joint statement on the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks. The two sides suspended 24% of the additional tariffs (retaining 10%) and cancelled some additional tariffs, starting from May 14, 2025, with an initial implementation period of 90 days [3]. - April Financial Data: On May 14, the People's Bank of China released April financial data. The increment of social financing scale in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale at the end of the month was 8.7%, up from 8.4% in the previous value [3]. - Tencent's Q1 2025 Financial Report: On May 14, Tencent released its Q1 2025 financial report. Q1 revenue reached 180 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 13%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 14% year - on - year to 47.8 billion yuan. The capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was 27.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 91%, accounting for 15% of the revenue [4]. - Tesla's Humanoid Robot: On May 13, Tesla's official Weibo released a video of the humanoid robot Optimus "dancing" and stated that the training code of the humanoid robot for "simulation to reality" was optimized [4]. - Next Week's Focus Events: Economic data, Huawei's humanoid robot press conference, Xiaomi YU7 press conference, etc. [4] Convertible Bond Views - Market Performance and Outlook: Despite the obvious positive factors of "tariff relaxation under Sino - US talks" and better - than - expected financial data, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index only rose by 0.76% and 0.32% respectively. The low increase may be due to the market's pre - pricing of "Sino - US tariff reduction". The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [5]. - Recommended Targets: Stable targets include convertible bonds such as Shangyin, Changyin, Hua'an, Lantian, and Wenshi; flexible targets include convertible bonds such as Zhongchong Zhuan 2, Daotong, Yinlun, Jizhi, Limin, Qianglian, Anji, and Dinglong [6].