固收动态报告：对二季度债市的定价如何？

Group 1 - The report indicates that the easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a defensive stance in the bond market, with long-term interest rates declining initially before concerns about liquidity resurfaced [2][7] - The market has shown a tendency towards a defensive posture, as evidenced by a decrease in the median duration of medium to long-term bond funds and a significant sell-off in ultra-long bonds [2][7] - The report highlights that most assets have completed over 80% of their recovery from the recent volatility, with equity assets showing strong rebounds while commodities lag behind [3][10][14] Group 2 - The report discusses the potential risks of a repeat of the tight liquidity scenario seen in the first quarter, noting that while there are some similarities in the macro environment, there are also significant differences, particularly regarding domestic demand uncertainty [4][16] - It is suggested that the current long-term interest rates are at the lower end of a reasonable range, with key indicators such as credit growth and return on invested capital (ROIC) providing context for this assessment [4][17] - The report emphasizes that further opening of long-term interest rate space will depend on effective movement in short-term rates, which currently lack downward momentum without triggering factors [5][20][33] Group 3 - The report outlines that the bond market's recovery is contingent on the central bank's actions regarding currency stability and potential resumption of government bond trading operations [5][25][29] - It notes that the current market valuation is at the lower end of a reasonable range, with the yield curve expected to remain flat and weakly oscillating [5][33] - The report also mentions that the central bank's recent actions, including net withdrawals of funds, have influenced the bond market's performance, with various maturities experiencing upward pressure on yields [34][39]