宏观情绪回暖，看好基本金属向上修复

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is improving, leading to a recovery in base metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum [1][10] - Gold prices are under pressure due to easing risk sentiment and trade negotiations between the US and China [2][25] - Supply tightness is pushing tungsten prices higher, while other small metals show mixed trends [3][43] Summary by Sections Base and Precious Metals - Copper: Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, with social inventory showing signs of recovery. The current inventory level is low, but demand is weakening as it enters the off-season [1][13] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices have rebounded, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory. The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has slightly increased [1][20] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased by 3.54% to an average of 768.56 CNY/g, while silver prices fell by 1.13% to 8111 CNY/kg. The easing of trade tensions has limited gold's rebound potential [2][25] Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices for tungsten have increased due to supply tightness, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 161,500 CNY/ton, up by 8,000 CNY/ton. The market is cautious due to high prices and limited low-cost supply [3][63] - Lithium: The lithium market remains stable with prices holding steady, but demand is weak, leading to a supply surplus [43][43] - Cobalt: Cobalt prices are stable, with limited trading activity due to cautious market sentiment and reduced purchasing intentions from downstream manufacturers [45][46] Rare Earths - Light Rare Earths: Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium and neodymium, have increased by 2.6% to 434,000 CNY/ton, supported by improving macro conditions and easing export controls [4][4] Other Metals - Molybdenum: The molybdenum market is stable with slight price increases, but the overall market remains cautious with limited trading activity [68][69]