投资策略周报：险资长线资金入市，A股“稳中有进”趋势延续-20250518

Market Review - The recent decrease in bilateral tariffs between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a global stock market rally, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2%. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3400 points in the first half of the week, driven by large financial stocks, followed by a volume-adjusted pullback in the latter half. The beauty care, non-bank financial, and transportation sectors led the gains, while TMT and military industries lagged behind. International crude oil prices increased, while gold prices fell, and domestic coking coal prices continued to weaken. Concerns about a US economic recession have eased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.5% [1][2]. Market Outlook - The influx of long-term insurance capital into the market is expected to sustain the "steady progress" trend in A-shares. The recent tariff reductions have improved short-term market risk appetite and fundamental expectations, allowing major A-share indices to break through the gap from early April. However, concerns about the volatility of tariffs remain, as the 30% tariffs imposed by the US on China earlier this year are still in place. Moving forward, A-shares are anticipated to remain in a steady upward trend amidst fluctuations, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market, such as the third batch of long-term insurance capital investment trials and reforms in public fund management fees [2][3]. Economic Fundamentals - The restoration of bilateral tariffs to "tradeable" levels post-China-US negotiations is expected to enhance global trade demand and economic growth expectations. The recent US inflation data for April was below market expectations, indicating a delayed impact of tariffs on "hard data." Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted from July to September, with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to 4.5%. In China, the export growth rate for April was 8.1%, exceeding market expectations, supported by "export diversion," despite a 21% year-on-year decline in direct exports to the US. The reduction in tariffs is likely to continue supporting exports in May and June, significantly mitigating the impact of external demand on the domestic economy [2][3]. Key Focus Areas 1. The easing of tariffs has temporarily boosted risk appetite, but the upcoming phase two negotiations between China and the US remain critical. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen profit-taking as the initial positive effects of tariff reductions have been priced in. The current A-share and Hong Kong indices have returned to pre-tariff levels, with the overall A-share index's price-to-earnings ratio recovering to above the ten-year median. The net outflow of southbound funds on May 12 indicates rising profit-taking sentiment among investors [3][4]. 2. The third batch of long-term insurance capital investment trials has been implemented, which is expected to inject additional capital into A-shares. The Financial Regulatory Bureau has proposed specific measures to stabilize the stock market, including expanding the trial scope of long-term insurance capital investments by an additional 60 billion yuan, bringing the total trial scale to 222 billion yuan. Recent reforms are anticipated to enhance the investment capacity of insurance funds in equities [4]. 3. Policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market are being introduced to optimize the investment ecosystem in A-shares. The public fund reform, which includes the introduction of performance-based floating fee rate funds, is expected to strengthen the alignment of interests between public funds and investors, encouraging a focus on long-term investment returns. Additionally, the revised regulations on major asset restructuring for listed companies are expected to enhance market activity in mergers and acquisitions [4][5]. Industry Allocation - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on public utilities, innovative pharmaceuticals, and "new consumption" sectors. The report suggests paying attention to themes such as military industry, self-sufficiency, and mergers and acquisitions [5].