铜行业周报：国内铜社库2025年3月初以来首次周度累库-20250518

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a gradual increase in copper prices due to improved macroeconomic expectations and potential domestic stimulus policies [1][4]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, while LME copper inventory continues to decline, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [10][25]. - The report highlights that the recent trade tensions have not yet negatively impacted the economy, which may continue to suppress copper price increases [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased by 9.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.9% [2][25]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [2]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][49]. - The report notes that cable companies maintain high operating rates, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points in the operating rate this week [3][77]. Price and Futures Summary - As of May 16, 2025, SHFE copper futures closed at 78,140 CNY/ton, up 0.9% from May 9, while LME copper closed at 9,448 USD/ton, up 0.02% [1][17]. - The report indicates a decrease in SHFE copper active contract positions by 3.9% week-on-week, with COMEX non-commercial net long positions down by 0.8% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5].