电新公用环保行业周报：山东广东出台136号文配套细则，装机及电价预期逐步明朗-20250518

Investment Ratings - Power Equipment: Buy (Maintain) [1] - Public Utilities: Buy (Maintain) [1] - Environmental Protection: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The introduction of implementation details for Document 136 by Shandong and Guangdong provinces has clarified expectations regarding installed capacity and electricity prices, with a focus on market-based pricing to reflect supply and demand dynamics for renewable energy [3] - Shandong's guidelines favor existing projects with a mechanism price based on coal-fired benchmark prices, while new projects will face competitive bidding with a minimum application rate of 125% [3] - Guangdong's regulations are more favorable for new projects, particularly offshore wind, with a mechanism application cap of 90% and a 14-year execution period for offshore wind projects [3] Summary by Sections Investment Aspects - Photovoltaics: Production and prices in the supply chain have declined, with market acceptance of weaker domestic demand for 2025 and 2026. Some companies' stock prices have reverted to mid-2024 levels. A rebound opportunity may arise with new supply-side policies or company restructuring. Recommended to focus on Tongwei Co [4] - Wind Power: With a favorable output curve and better economic viability compared to photovoltaics, wind power is expected to recover as more provinces release Document 136 details. Suggested companies include Mingyang Smart Energy, Yunda Wind Power, and Goldwind [4] - Energy Storage and Power Equipment: Continued focus on high growth in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa for energy storage in 2025. Recommended companies include Deye Technology and Haibo Technology. Future attention should be on virtual power plants and integrated cloud distribution, with recommendations for Weisheng Information and Guoneng Rixin [4] - Thematic Investments: Focus on solid-state batteries and controllable nuclear fusion, with recommendations for Xinyuan Materials and Hezhong Intelligent [4] Wind Power - New installed capacity for onshore wind in 2024 is projected at approximately 75.8 GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%. Offshore wind capacity is expected to be around 4.0 GW, a decrease of 40.85% [6][7] - In the first quarter of 2025, domestic wind power installations reached 14.62 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 5.68% [6][7] Coal Prices - As of May 16, 2025, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 629 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY from the previous week [25] - The price of imported thermal coal from Indonesia was 700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5 CNY, while Australian coal remained stable at 720 CNY/ton [25] Electricity Market - The weighted average electricity price in Guangdong and the real-time market clearing price in Shanxi have shown fluctuations, reflecting the dynamics of the electricity market [28]