高盛交易台：中美休战后的情绪调研 + 交易策略

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].