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高盛:流动性洞察--A股解放日后(4 - 5月)流动性更新
Goldman Sachs·2025-05-18 14:09

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - A-share trading volume reached a year-to-date low in mid-April, influenced by pre-holiday caution and uncertainties regarding domestic stimulus and US/China trade negotiations [4] - Post-Labor Day, trading volumes rebounded approximately 20% from pre-holiday levels, indicating a recovery in market liquidity, with an average daily volume of $181 billion in May, a 10% increase compared to April [4] - Volatility peaked after Liberation Day but has since decreased as trade-related concerns eased [4] - Average spreads narrowed by approximately 1-1.5 basis points in May compared to April, with the most significant reduction occurring in the first 30 minutes of trading [4] - The average quote size at the top of the order book increased by roughly 20% compared to April, suggesting lower transaction costs due to tighter spreads and deeper liquidity [4] - CSI300 stocks' volume participation rose from 18% to 25% after the Labor Day holidays [4][16] - Onshore Equity ETFs saw the largest weekly inflows during the week of April 11, primarily driven by CSI300 ETFs, although these inflows were followed by three weeks of net outflows [4] - Chinese Equities experienced moderate net buying activity for four consecutive weeks, with A-shares accounting for 70% of net buying flows [4] - Gross allocation to China has decreased from year-to-date highs, currently at 4.7%, while net allocation has increased to 8.6% [4] Summary by Sections Liquidity Overview - A-share trading volume dropped to a year-to-date low in mid-April due to investor caution [4] - Recovery in liquidity was observed post-Labor Day with a significant rebound in trading volumes [4] Foreign Positions & Flows - The report indicates a moderate net buying activity in Chinese equities, with A-shares dominating the flows [4] Sector Performance - Industrial, Finance, and Technology sectors saw the largest month-over-month volume increases, while Property and Utilities experienced reductions [4]